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The BFCM Index: three years of Black Friday performance, broken down by channel.

Explore the index

Layer 01 of 04

Model

See what's coming, prove what worked

Every decision starts with a forecast, and every forecast needs a check. The Model layer projects revenue, return on ad spend and pacing across every channel, refreshed daily, then proves which channels actually moved the needle with real tests, not platform-reported numbers. Our analytics team reviews every read before it reaches you.

ForecastBudgetPaceTests
Layer 01 of 4
01Forecast

See what's coming.

Revenue and return on ad spend predictions for every channel, retrained every night and reviewed by our analytics team before you see them.

Every channel gets its own forecast, refreshed each night against the last 90 days. You see what Meta, Google and TikTok are likely to deliver before the month closes, not after, so decisions get made with foresight instead of hindsight.

Forecast - preview
Revenue Forecast - 30 daysTimesFM 2.5
Predicted
$1.42M
+18% vs current
Confidence
92%
High
Best channel
Google PMax
$420K
At risk
Meta Broad
-14%
Channel revenue - next 30d
ACTUALFORECAST95% CI
$60K$45K$30K$15K
TODAY$58K
-14d-7dToday+7d+14d+21d+30d
Validated against
Lift tests
Geo-split A/B, last 14d+12.4%
Holdout groups
10% audience hold-back - running 28d
Incrementality
Causal attribution - iROAS2.8x
Forecast tuned weekly - p < 0.05
02Budget

Put spend where it works.

Budget recommendations based on where returns are heading, not last month's gut feel. Our paid media team reviews every move before it ships.

We score each channel by its likely return at the margin, not last month's average. A channel that's already maxed out ranks lower even if its headline number still looks good, so budget goes where it will actually grow revenue.

Budget - preview
Budget Allocation+12% predicted ROI
Total monthly
$285K
Across 4 channels
Reallocation
$32K
Recommended shift
Projected lift
+$54K
Net revenue - 30d
Channel
Current
Suggested
Delta
Predicted ROAS
Google PMax
$95K
$118K
+$23K
4.8x
Meta Advantage+
$78K
$87K
+$9K
3.6x
Meta Broad
$72K
$48K
-$24K
1.4x
TikTok
$40K
$32K
-$8K
2.1x
Total
$285K
$285K
3.6x avg
03Pace

Stay on track, in real time.

See spend against your daily and monthly targets as it happens. Catch pacing issues in hours, not weeks.

Spend updates continuously against the daily rate needed to hit your monthly budget. One glance shows what's ahead, behind or on track, no manual reconciliation needed.

Pace - previewLive - MTD
Live Pacing - April
MTD spend
$192K
of $285K target
Net sales
$806K
+12% MoM
MER
4.20x
+0.3 MoM
Blended NCAC
$42.10
-12%
Date
Platform
Spend
Sales
Orders
ROAS
MER
NCAC
CTR
Pace
APR 22 - TODAY
Apr 22
Google
$3.2K
$14.8K
142
4.6x
5.1x
$22.5
2.4%
+7% over
Apr 22
Meta
$2.6K
$8.4K
96
3.2x
3.6x
$48.2
1.1%
On pace
Apr 22
TikTok
$1.2K
$3.8K
38
3.2x
3.5x
$58.4
2.0%
-8% under
Apr 22
Klaviyo
$0.4K
$3.5K
42
8.7x
9.1x
$9.5
3.4%
On pace
APR 21
Apr 21
Google
$3.0K
$13.2K
128
4.4x
4.9x
$23.4
2.3%
On pace
Apr 21
Meta
$2.8K
$9.1K
102
3.3x
3.7x
$46.8
1.2%
On pace
Apr 21
TikTok
$1.4K
$4.4K
44
3.1x
3.4x
$56.2
1.9%
On pace
APR 20
Apr 20
Google
$3.1K
$12.4K
119
4.0x
4.5x
$26.1
2.1%
closed
Apr 20
Meta
$2.7K
$8.6K
94
3.2x
3.6x
$48.0
1.1%
closed
Today total
4 platforms
$7.4K
$30.5K
318
4.1x
4.5x
$28.6
2.0%
On pace
04Tests

Prove what actually works.

Real-world tests that separate what your spend actually caused from what would have happened anyway. No guessing, no relying on what the platforms tell you.

We hold a market or audience back from spend and compare it to the rest. The difference shows what your marketing actually caused, with confidence built in so the result is proof, not a guess.

Tests - previewCausal - quarterly
Incrementality + MMM - Q1
Tests this Q
12
9 shipped · 3 active
Avg inc. ROAS
3.4x
+0.4 vs last Q
Significant
67%
p < 0.10 threshold
Channels
5
Meta · TT · Google · CRM
Design
Channel
Window
Lift
p-value
Inc. ROAS
Predicted
Status
Geo holdout · NSW vs VIC
Meta · prospecting
21d
+14.2%
p < 0.05
3.6x
+12.1%
Shipped
Audience holdout · LAL 1%
Meta · LAL
14d
+9.4%
p < 0.10
2.9x
+8.7%
Shipped
Geo holdout · QLD only
TikTok
21d
+18.1%
p < 0.01
4.2x
+11.4%
Shipped
Bid lift · Brand search
Google · brand
28d
+1.8%
p = 0.41
0.9x
+6.5%
Shipped
MMM refresh · Q1 priors
All channels
90d
Running
Geo holdout · WA pilot
Meta · prospecting
21d
+10.2%
Queued
Calibrates Model priorsPredicted vs observed delta = next-cycle calibration signal

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50+brands
$750M+GMV
10+years