The BFCM Index: three years of Black Friday performance, broken down by channel.
Explore the indexThe BFCM Index: three years of Black Friday performance, broken down by channel.
We model cohort LTV, CAC payback and per-channel ratios on the same dashboard your finance team reads. A specialist walks the assumptions weekly and turns the output into CPA ceilings for Meta, Google PMax and TikTok, so bidding never outruns what a customer is actually worth.
WHAT WE SHIP
We track cohort LTV by acquisition channel, product category and discount sensitivity through 12, 24 and 36-month windows. A specialist reviews the trajectory weekly and flags drift, so cohort progression and predicted 12-month value are always current on your dashboard.
We report CAC-to-LTV per channel, never as one blended average. A 3:1 on Meta and a 2:1 on Google PMax are different economic decisions, and we flag the moment a ratio starts deteriorating, before the quarter closes.
Payback is modelled per channel against current CAC and observed LTV trajectory, so finance sees exactly how much working capital growth requires. We rebuild it each quarter and feed it straight into the next media plan.
Discount-acquired customers are tracked as a separate cohort from full-price buyers, because they usually carry lower LTV and stronger discount dependence. Isolating them stops your acquisition mix training the whole base to wait for a sale.
LTV outputs translate directly into a CPA ceiling per channel: if 12-month cohort LTV is $180 and nine months is an acceptable payback, the ceiling is calculable, and it's enforced inside Meta and Google PMax bidding. The LTV model becomes the constraint your media spend operates inside, not a number you check after the fact.
The same cohort model that sets acquisition CPA ceilings also flags which segments are worth the retention budget: a cohort with strong LTV but flat engagement gets a heavier flow investment before it decays into lapsed, while a cohort with genuinely low LTV doesn't get chased with escalating discounts it will never repay.
ACCOUNTABILITY
Cohort window behind every LTV read
Real cohorts, not blended averages
Channels modelled separately for LTV
Paid social, search and email earn different customers
LTV reviews a year, inside your QBR
Retention budget decided on cohort evidence
PROOF
Assembly Label
fashion
A retention and measurement partnership refining the lifecycle programme and bringing online and retail into a clearer, shared view.
View case study
Bed Threads
home
A homewares brand outgrowing its own stack. We rebuilt the storefront, scaled paid and lifecycle in lockstep, and ran peak periods across three markets without buckling.
View case study
Vida Glow
beauty
A multi-region ingestible beauty brand rebuilt for durable growth. Acquisition sharpened across paid channels, retention rebuilt around subscription depth and second-purchase economics.
View case study
Rachel Gilbert
fashion
A special-occasion womenswear label needed retention and lifecycle work that respected long consideration cycles. We rebuilt the lifecycle layer around the way the customer actually buys.
View case studyOBJECTIONS
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